The latest S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index for US home prices, as of November 2025, reveals the slowdown in home demand and deceleration in price increases that continued towards year end. You can explore the full report here →
Generally speaking, for the King, Snohomish, Pierce, and Kitsap Counties, overall listing volumes, pending sales, and average prices declined in Q4-2025, which is a seasonal reality. A primary concern remains affordability and anxiety about job security with artificial intelligence, especially in the tech sector regionally. A Washington Employment Security Department (WARN) filing showed 2,303 Amazon jobs were cut in Washington state, primarily in Seattle and Bellevue, as part of that prior broader layoff. Major job market news, such as the Amazon layoffs, can affect buyer trends.
Meanwhile, the January 2026 listing prices have been under slight downward pressure or stabilizing rather than rising sharply compared with the prior year in the Seattle area and broader Western Washington markets. In Seattle proper, inventory levels are at around 3.5 months of supply, which is a more balanced level than recent years and implies significantly more listings than a year ago, when inventory was historically low. Below is a chart for the four-county region of single-family homes (resale only) tracking closely to how the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index reports.
“November’s results confirm that the housing market has entered a period of tepid growth,” said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “National home prices were only 1.4% higher than a year ago, unchanged from October’s annual pace and still near the weakest showing since mid-2023. This subdued price growth is less than half of the 3.7% annual price increase notched in November 2024. Consumer inflation cooled to 2.7%, dipping below 3% for the first time since August and aligning with its average pace over the prior 12 months. However, home price growth still trails inflation by roughly 1.3 percentage points, meaning real home values have effectively edged down over the past year.”
With the Fed pause on sharpening cuts on the Bank Rate recently, the consensus is that mortgage rates will remain stable in the low 6% range for much of 2026, while the increase in inventory levels will continue to mount, and potential buyers will have more options to choose from, and likely, more negotiation leverage. The “spring sales season” will most likely be robust in 2026.
The year 2026 is likely to be “new normal” of more moderated price gains but greater stability in housing supply and demand, with most pundits anticipating about 10% increases in overall sales volumes regionally, mostly from increased unit counts and less so from price increases.
To discuss the market trends and your own real estate journey, reach out to an RSIR advisor today.