Last month, when the October results of the S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller Home Price Index were released, we observed that “prices since recorded by the NWMLS suggest that Seattle residential price growth may have finished 2019 on track with the +3.3 percent national average for October.”[1] It turns out that Seattle residential prices have since outperformed even this optimistic prediction, with the index having already reached 3.3-percent year-over-year growth in November. [2] The Case Shiller National Composite Index has since risen from 3.3 percent in October to 3.5 percent in November 2019. (The 10-City and 20-City Indices lagged at 2.0-percent and 2.6-percent growth, respectively.) As also noted last month,
Data for November and December, subsequently posted by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service (“NWMLS”), appear to confirm that the trend will continue through the year end, bolstered by shrinking inventories in Seattle, West Bellevue, and throughout the Seattle MSA. In welcome news for condominium sellers, the latter trend is mirrored by inventory contractions in the city of Seattle and on the Eastside.
We added that among the slow-growth cities on the index, Seattle was “closing in on Miami and Washington DC.” By November, residential prices in Seattle were indeed outpacing prices in both of those cities, as well as those in New York City and Chicago (Chart A). The four-month run of year-over-year increases led Seattle home price growth to surpass that of San Francisco in August and of Los Angeles in October. As of November, Seattle residential price growth matched the rate seen in Portland the same month—likewise 3.3 percent. November year-over-year price index increases among the remaining West Coast cities were 3.9 percent for San Diego, 2.7 percent for L.A., and 0.5 percent for San Francisco—the first positive number for that city since July 2019 (Chart B).
With the aforementioned 3.5-percent increase in the National Composite Index, “The U.S. housing market was stable in November,” Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices observed in the S&P Dow Jones press release:
As was the case last month, after a long period of decelerating price increases, the National, 10-City, and 20-City Composites all rose at a modestly faster rate in November than they had done in October. This increase was broad-based, reflecting data in 15 of 20 cities. It is, of course, still too soon to say whether this marks an end to the deceleration or is merely a pause in the longer-term trend.[3]
For more details on the November 2019 Case-Shiller Index results, download the S&P Dow Jones Case-Shiller summary report. Check the RSIR website for notice of upcoming publication of our 2019/2020 Market Report. For details on the market implications of our reports for homes in your neighborhood, contact a local RSIR broker.
[1] William Hillis, “Residential Prices In Seattle Once Again Competing Nationally,” Realogics Sotheby’s International Realty, 3 January 2020.
[2] Published by S&P Dow Jones, the Case Shiller Index surveys resales of residential homes in the Seattle metropolitan statistical area comprising King, Snohomish, and Pierce Counties (“Seattle MSA”). The index notably does not account for condominium sales.
[3] “S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Continues Upward Trend for Annual Home Price Gains,” S&P Dow Jones Indices, New York, 28 January 2020.